Highway Towards a Greener Road Transport

The transportation sector is essential to our daily lives, the global mobility industry and the global economy in general. Yet it significantly contributes to climate change. In the last article we touched on the impact global transportation has on carbon emissions production and the quality of our environment overall, from the perspectives of air and sea freight. This week we will zoom into road transportation, light duty vehicles (LDVs) specifically. Why? Because cars and vans, are at the forefront of the issue being the biggest source of transportation emissions, accounting for approximately 48 % of emissions in the transportation sector in 2022.(1)

Road Transport and Its Effect on the World we live in

Most of the cars being driven or sold worldwide are combustion engine vehicles, meaning the car is powered by burning fossil fuel. The classical fossil fuels are carbon based so when burned in the engine it releases carbon dioxide (CO2), a major greenhouse gas. Beyond carbon dioxide, light duty vehicles emit other pollutants like nitrogen oxides and particles, which degrade air quality and pose significant health risks, particularly in urban areas.

As you already know, emissions from burning fossil fuels contribute to the greenhouse effect, trapping heat in the atmosphere and causing global warming. This leads to rising temperatures, melting ice caps, and increasing sea levels, threatening coastal areas and ecosystems but also biodiversity in general. Extreme weather events such as flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and others are linked to global warming causing the overall disruption of the ecosystem and respective communities.

How many cars are too many?

It is difficult to accurately define the precise number of cars in the world. A decent approximation can be formed using data from automotive industry research firm Hedges & Company, which estimates a total number of 1.47 billion vehicles. Most of the cars being in China, followed by Europe and North America. However North America has the highest number of cars relative to the number of inhabitants – 710 vehicles per 1,000 people.(2) And more cars are coming. Last year, global car sales reached ~75.3 million units (3) and as per the S&P rating company forecasts, the sales will increase by 2-3% in 2024 and 2025 to exceed 90 millions of cars sold in a year.(4)

So, what options do we have?

People use and need cars for different reasons and the more affordable and available cars will be, the more cars will be sold. Especially in the areas and communities where cars were not affordable before. Promoting public transportation, walking, cycling, car sharing or carpooling over private vehicle use is not only more sustainable and sometimes healthier but also more cost-efficient option in most cases. But it is not always the best solution for everyone. Locations where there is not sufficient public transport system in place, more time flexibility is needed, or one simply needs to move around more effectively with family or others who is taken care of, car is simply a necessity.

So, when the “why” is justified, it is more about how to use them effectively and sustainably at the same time. And that is where the transitioning to electric and other lower-emission vehicles comes into place. Electric vehicles have generally lower lifecycle emissions compared to internal combustion engine cars. And even more if the electricity used for powering the electric car is sourced from sustainable sources, such as wind or solar powerhouses. Based on the Reuters data, it reports it takes approximately 13500 miles (21 725 kms) for Tesla model 3 to drive in US to start being more environmentally friendly than a classical combustion engine car (in this case Toyota Corolla). And if the same Tesla would be driven in Norway, it would break even much sooner – at 8400 miles, as most of its electricity is generated from the hydropower (5). Other sources report it takes slightly less than two years to become breakeven.(6) Many variables enter into the formula – from battery size in the EV, consumption and efficiency of the combustion vehicle type, energy source used for powering the EV etc. however the logic is, that despite the EVs emit more CO2 during their production (mainly because of the battery), it pretty quickly pays back once the car starts to be in use. And the more the car is being driven and the longer it is in operation, the better the effect.

EVs on the way to higher adoption

The EVs are seen by many as one of the most important technology for decarbonizing the sector. The global sales of EVs went up to 17% in 2023 (BEVs, PHEVs). (7) China has been the main sales driver which has been the world’s largest electric vehicle exporter while selling most of its electric cars at home at the same time. Some reports say the regional divergence is still about to increase and that is why the increased production and exports of EVs from China is as now being a hot topic in the industry. The EV local subsidies in EU (such as in Germany) and other markets are ending and with less incentives the EV sales growth might slow down in the upcoming year in Europe. Without incentives, the EVs will become less affordable. And despite the pricing of EVs produced in China is below the level of the EU carmaker’s prices and thus more affordable for the end user, it poses a threat for the regional EV industry. So, at the end of the day, it is more likely that trade restrictions will be imposed on the imports, which might also influence the total sales. (8)

There are many factors influencing the buying decision when it comes to whether to buy or not to buy and EV. Let it be appearance and design, car segment/class, equipment etc. Also, gender, age, residence and other socio-economic background plays an important role. Interestingly, certain studies even proved that masculinity has a significant negative impact on BEV sales. In academic research conducted in Poland it was confirmed that the purchase price is a dominant factor in the list of decision stimulus, with New Mobility Barometer report mentioning Poles willing to buy an EV if 22% cheaper. (9) Other studies confirm the importance of price as the key decisive factor in other European countries. (10)

Availability and price for smoother adoption

In conclusion, the impact of global transportation on the environment is substantial, but so are the opportunities for positive change. When there is no availability for a more sustainable solution, there are still other options which help decrease the relocation’s overall carbon footprint. What are these? The daily habits and seemingly trivial things which might seem inconsiderable in the short run but can “offset” the whole return flight in a year or two. So, by integrating sustainability into every phase of the relocation process, we can reduce emissions, improve air quality, and contribute to a more sustainable future. The choices made today will shape the world of tomorrow, making it imperative to act with foresight and responsibility.

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